College football Week 1 results: 12 underdog picks.
One winner.
Every tracked favorite pick was correct. Chip Patterson’s Tulsa call was the lone underdog hit—but the perfect favorite record needs a closer look.
What happened in Week 1?
Favorites finished unbeaten in our Week 1 ledger: every tracked favorite selection was correct, while only one underdog selection hit. Together, the picks finished 28–11 on outright winners.
That split needs context. These are 39 selections from 17 pundits across 11 games, with several people backing the same teams. The 12 underdog picks represented 7 different teams; only Tulsa won. This is the sample we captured, not every prediction those pundits made.
Favorites
27 picks · 8 games100% correct27 hits / 0 misses
Underdogs
12 picks · 7 games8.3% correct1 hit / 11 misses
Who picked Tulsa to upset Oklahoma State?
Chip Patterson backed Tulsa on Cover 3 before the game. Our dated snapshot put Tulsa at 18¢; the Golden Hurricane then beat Oklahoma State 24–10, delivering the week’s only winning underdog selection.
The original receipt makes that call verifiable. It also belongs alongside Patterson’s misses, rather than standing alone as proof of an upset-picking edge.
“I’m gonna go Tulsa plus 450.”
Cover 3 · Source: 2026-09-03
The other side of his week: Patterson also picked Toledo, which lost 20–30 at Michigan State. That puts him at 1–1 on tracked Week 1 underdogs. The Toledo receipt ↗
Which underdog picks won in Week 1?
| Underdog / matchup | Who picked it | Kalshi snapshot | Final / W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| TulsaOklahoma State at Tulsa | Chip Patterson | 18¢2026-09-03 | ✓ Won24–10 |
| FIUFIU at South Florida | Danny KanellBud Elliott | 17¢2026-09-03 | × Lost9–19 |
| ClemsonClemson at LSU | George WrighsterDanny Kanell | 23¢2026-09-03 | × Lost10–51 |
| ToledoToledo at Michigan State | Chip Patterson | 23¢2026-09-03 | × Lost20–30 |
| BaylorBaylor vs Auburn | Bud Elliott | 28¢2026-09-03 | × Lost16–17 |
| Florida StateSMU at Florida State | Danny KanellClay Travis | 42¢2026-09-04 | × Lost24–27 |
| CaliforniaUCLA at California | Danny KanellWill ComptonTom Fornelli | 48¢2026-09-03 | × Lost24–45 |
Final scores are shown from the underdog’s perspective.
What’s behind the perfect favorite record?
LSU supplied 10 winning picks and Notre Dame supplied 7: 17 of the 27 favorite hits came from just two results. The favorite record therefore reflects repeated agreement on a few teams, not 27 independent winning games.
Across all 11 covered games, favorites went 10–1. Oklahoma State lost, but nobody in our ledger had picked it. That difference explains why the captured favorite selections could finish unbeaten.
One week cannot establish lasting predictive skill. The useful next question is whether pundits keep finding successful underdogs as their records grow—and whether those hits hold up when every miss stays in view.
How we counted the picks
We used the published game-winner picks for college football Week 1 of the 2026 season. All 39 were graded. Each pundit counts once per game. Other weeks, NFL, season-long predictions, tentative commentary and takes without a specific tracked event and side are excluded.
For this report, underdogs are picked sides below 50¢ in the displayed dated Kalshi snapshot; favorites are above 50¢. No selection was missing a price or exactly 50¢. These shared event snapshots are not closing odds or necessarily the prices when a prediction was made. The records measure straight-up results, not spread covers or betting returns.
How Pundits.Pro verifies and grades picks ↗
